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Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Promotion Race

As we enter 2016, the race to gain promotion from the Evo-Stik Premier is heating up, as the contenders look to gain one of two places in the National League North

The winner of the division receives automatic promotion while the sides finishing in places 2-5 will enter the playoffs. Currently Blyth Spartans sit in the automatic promotion spot, with Nantwich Town, Salford City, Ashton United and Workington in the play-off positions. Here I have a look at those in contention and make my predictions for the end of the season.

Current league standings (04/01/2016)

1. Blyth Spartans- Played 24, Points 51, Goal Difference +24

2. Nantwich Town- Played 26, Points 46, Goal Difference +26

3. Salford City- Played 22, Points 46, Goal Difference +19

4. Ashton United- Played 23, Points 44, Goal Difference +19

5. Workington- Played 24, Points 43, Goal Difference +8

6. Darlington- Played 21, Points 42, Goal Difference +22

7. Buxton- Played 23, Points 40, Goal Difference +7

The Bookmakers see it as a three horse race between the current leaders, Blyth, along with the heavily supported Darlington and Salford City. Currently, both have games in hand that could see them go top of the table.

(Odds taken from Bet 365 04/01/2016)

Blyth Spartans-1st place. Title odds 5/2

The Spartans currently sit top of the table and have opened up a healthy cushion. They once again hit the national media last season with a fantastic FA Cup run and only just missed out on the play-offs. This season they have been top of the league from almost the word go having started their league campaign with four straight wins. They followed this up with an impressive away win at the pre-season title favourites Salford, 1-0. However, recently local rivals Darlington completed the double over Blyth in the league with a 1-0 win at Croft Park. Compared to their two main title rivals Blyth may be seen as having a smaller squad, but when everyone is fit they can compete with anyone. In Danny Maguire and Robbie Dale they have two players who will score bags of goals, already netting 23 times between them this season. One advantage that Blyth do have, compared to their rivals, is their remaining games. They play Nantwich and Salford in January, but after this they only have one game left to play against the current top six.

Nantwich Town- 2nd place. Title odds 20/1

In the Evo-Stik Premier Division this season, Nantwich have been the team to watch, their 25 games so far have produced a staggering 99 goals, with the side scoring 63 of them, 14 more than anyone else in the division. They currently sit second, but have played more games than any other side near the top of the table. At the weekend, Nantwich suffered a shock home defeat against Whitby Town, but they will need to bounce back straight away when they face Salford City on Tuesday night. They have a tough set of remaining fixtures, which includes the return match against Salford on the second last weekend of the season, a game which is likely to have something riding on it for both teams.

Salford City -3rd place. Title odds 15/8

Salford came up from the First Division North pipping Darlington to the league title and they have gone from strength to strength this year. The club, who are famously owned by the Class of 92, have been in the spotlight this year due to a BBC documentary about the club, but also thanks to their success on the pitch. A fantastic FA Cup run saw them repeat what Blyth did last season, by beating a League Two side live on national television. This led to two further games being televised, which have seen attendances greatly increase. Away from their cup success, they are in pole position for the league, knowing that if they win their games in hand they will go top of the table. They have kept up a quite incredible record away from home in the league which stretched back into last season. So far in the league they have won eleven of their twelve fixtures away from home, their only defeat being a reverse at Grantham Town. However, they have struggled at Moor Lane winning only three league games so far. They have an excellent squad which includes Danny Webber and Gareth Seddon. However, former Hartlepool United player James Poole has been equally as good this campaign and he showed against Notts County in the FA Cup the qualities he has. The Ammies still have to play Darlington and Nantwich twice which could prove crucial.

Ashton United – 4th place. Title odds 11/1

Ashton United appeared to be suffering a bit of a hangover from last season’s play-off loss, as they struggled to get any consistency going at the start of the season, but they have won their last eight league games to put them right in the shake-up. They have a hectic January which sees them play eight times. Like Darlington, they have a very tough run of fixtures, with games with Salford, Darlington and Nantwich Town still to come. However, momentum in football can never be overlooked and Ashton are the form team in the league at the moment. Their next three league games include fixtures with Workington and Salford, if they carry their good run through this period they may not just be challenging for a play-off spot, they may challenge for the title.

Workington- 5th place. Title odds 20/1

Like Ashton United, Workington came so close to promotion last season finishing second in the league table only two points behind winners FC United. Also like Ashton, they suffered an indifferent start to the season, but a good run has put them back in contention. They were one of the fancied sides before a ball was kicked this season and I fully expect them to at least be in the play-off mix come April. Their recent good run was halted though at the weekend, after Colwyn Bay scored twice late on to stun Workington, 2-1. I saw them play at Darlington in October and despite losing 4-0 the score-line flattered the hosts.

Darlington-6th place. Title odds 5/2

It’s been an impressive season so far for Darlington and the side remains in the top six despite a stop-start last few months which have seen the majority of their games called off due to the weather. The Quakers have been able to establish depth to the squad which won promotion via the play-offs last season and this could be crucial in the promotion race. The side currently have conceded the least goals in the division, 22. At the other end of the pitch they also look very strong with strikers Lee Gaskell, Nathan Cartman and Graeme Armstrong all doing well this season. However, they have a very tough set of fixtures to come. Darlington are yet to play either Nantwich Town or Salford City in the league this season. The side also have problems with the pitch at Heritage Park, with the last home game being in October. Further postponements appear inevitable which could lead to a fixture pile-up come the end of the season. However, having watching the side develop over the past few years under Martin Gray I have every confidence that Darlington can put a run together to contend for the title.

Buxton- 7th place. Title odds 33/1

Buxton started the season very impressively before falling away, but a recent surge of victories has put them back into the promotion scene. In Liam Hardy they have the league’s joint top scorer and it is proven at every level of football just how crucial these types of players can be. I saw them pick up a deserved win against Darlington on the opening day of the season, 2-0, when they looked impressive. The league seems very open this year and Buxton have given themselves an excellent chance in the second half of the season to push on for a play-off spot. Of the current top seven they still have away trips to Darlington, Salford, Workington and Ashton United.

Predictions

There is still a long way to go, but before the season started my gut instinct said it would be between Darlington, Salford and Blyth, nothing has happened so far to drastically change my mind. I am far from writing the others off, Nantwich are in second and still have four games against Salford and Darlington to come so they will have a huge say come the end of the season. However, I feel for the second year in a row it will be Salford who will win direct promotion. From a Darlington fan’s point of view though, the play-offs didn’t end too badly last May …….

1. Salford City
2. Blyth Spartans
3. Darlington
4. Ashton United
5. Nantwich Town
6. Workington
7. Buxton